Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar

Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Eredivisie 2026-08-15 16:45
Utrecht
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Home Win
Pick
Utrecht
Probability
54%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-0
AZ Alkmaar
Away

Prediction Summary

1
54%
X
24%
2
22%
O/U 2.5 · No edge
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Utrecht (Home)

Goals scored / match1.89
Goals conceded / match0.83
Over 2.5 rate28%
BTTS rate50%

AZ Alkmaar (Away)

Goals scored / match1.12
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Utrecht
DWWWW
AZ Alkmaar
DDDDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

83% +0.5 76%
61% +1.5 29%
28% +2.5 6%
17% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
50% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Home Win with a probability of 54%. Model confidence is Low.

Utrecht averages 1.89 goals scored at home, while AZ Alkmaar averages 1.12 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
54%
Draw
24%
Away Win
22%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
51%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Utrecht 2 - 0 AZ Alkmaar Home
Oct 2025 Utrecht(A) 1 - 4 AZ Alkmaar Away
Jan 2025 Utrecht 0 - 0 AZ Alkmaar Draw
Sep 2024 Utrecht(A) 2 - 1 AZ Alkmaar Home
May 2024 Utrecht(A) 3 - 3 AZ Alkmaar Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Utrecht won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Utrecht — unbeaten run (home)7
Utrecht — scoring streak (home)7
AZ Alkmaar — winless run (away)5
AZ Alkmaar — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Utrecht Win (1)54%
Draw (X)24%
AZ Alkmaar Win (2)22%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

83% +0.5 76%
61% +1.5 29%
28% +2.5 6%
17% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

17% -0.5 24%
39% -1.5 71%
72% -2.5 94%
83% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Utrecht — scored (home)1.89
Utrecht — conceded (home)0.83
AZ Alkmaar — scored (away)1.12
AZ Alkmaar — conceded (away)1.47
Model expected combined goals2.66

Both Teams To Score

Yes51%
No49%

Rate per Team

Utrecht — BTTS matches (home)50%
AZ Alkmaar — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)51.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.564%
Under 8.536%
Over 9.554%
Under 9.546%
Over 10.545%
Under 10.555%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Utrecht (home)

Corners for5.3
Corners against4.6

AZ Alkmaar (away)

Corners for5.6
Corners against4.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Utrecht
12 11 7 15 12
AZ Alkmaar
12 15 7 10 13

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Utrecht (home)

For1.1

AZ Alkmaar (away)

For2.2

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.577%
Under 19.523%
Over 22.565%
Under 22.535%
Over 25.553%
Under 25.547%
Expected total shots27.36

Utrecht

Shots Over 9.581%
Shots Over 11.568%
Shots Over 13.554%
Expected shots14.81
On Target Over 3.568%
On Target Over 4.553%
On Target Over 5.539%
Expected on target5.03

AZ Alkmaar

Shots Over 9.569%
Shots Over 11.554%
Shots Over 13.539%
Expected shots12.54
On Target Over 3.563%
On Target Over 4.547%
On Target Over 5.533%
Expected on target4.64

Shots per Game

Utrecht — total shots (home)17.3
AZ Alkmaar — total shots (away)15.4

Shots on Target

Utrecht — on target (home)5.9
AZ Alkmaar — on target (away)5.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Utrecht

Inside the box10.39
Outside the box4.89

AZ Alkmaar

Inside the box10.35
Outside the box5.41

Player Shots Utrecht

Ángel Alarcón
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target36%
V. Jensen
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target88%
+1.5 On Target13%
G. Zechiël
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target19%
Y. Cathline
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target14%
A. Stepanov
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target13%

Player Shots AZ Alkmaar

T. Parrott
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target79%
+1.5 On Target43%
S. Mijnans
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target33%
M. Meerdink
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target21%
Weslley Patati
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target11%
I. Sadiq
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Utrecht xG (home)1.51
AZ Alkmaar xG (away)1.88

Average Possession

46.53% Possession 53.18%

Team Comparison Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar

78.69% Pass accuracy 81.85%
398.92 Passes per match 457.76
-0.15 Goals prevented -0.09
10.86 Fouls committed 10.21
3.47 Goalkeeper saves 3.06
1.25 Offsides 1.22
16.39 Tackles per match 17.85

League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar prediction analysis

Review Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Eredivisie.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Eredivisie
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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