Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Valencia vs Celta Vigo

Valencia vs Celta Vigo prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions
La Liga 2026-08-22 17:30
Valencia
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Celta Vigo
Away

Prediction Summary

1
36%
X
27%
2
36%
Under 2.5
55%
BTTS · No edge
50%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Valencia (Home)

Goals scored / match1.42
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate63%

Celta Vigo (Away)

Goals scored / match1.26
Goals conceded / match1.05
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate63%

Team Form last 5 matches

Valencia
WWDWL
Celta Vigo
WDLWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

84% +0.5 84%
37% +1.5 32%
21% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
63% BTTS 63%

Model Insight

The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Medium.

Valencia averages 1.42 goals scored at home, while Celta Vigo averages 1.26 goals scored away.

Model Strength
55%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
36%
Draw
27%
Away Win
36%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Yes
50%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Valencia 2 - 3 Celta Vigo Away
Jan 2026 Valencia(A) 1 - 4 Celta Vigo Away
Feb 2025 Valencia 2 - 1 Celta Vigo Home
Aug 2024 Valencia(A) 1 - 3 Celta Vigo Away
May 2024 Valencia(A) 2 - 2 Celta Vigo Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Valencia won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Valencia — unbeaten run (home)2
Valencia — scoring streak (home)2
Celta Vigo — winless run (away)1
Celta Vigo — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Valencia Win (1)36%
Draw (X)27%
Celta Vigo Win (2)36%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

84% +0.5 84%
37% +1.5 32%
21% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

16% -0.5 16%
63% -1.5 68%
79% -2.5 89%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Valencia vs Celta Vigo — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Valencia — scored (home)1.42
Valencia — conceded (home)1.21
Celta Vigo — scored (away)1.26
Celta Vigo — conceded (away)1.05
Model expected combined goals2.47

Both Teams To Score

Yes50%
No50%

Rate per Team

Valencia — BTTS matches (home)63%
Celta Vigo — BTTS matches (away)63%
Combined (simple average)63%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

Valencia (home)

Corners for6.0
Corners against4.3

Celta Vigo (away)

Corners for3.1
Corners against5.3

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Valencia
8 18 6 5 15
Celta Vigo
6 10 8 5 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.6

Yellow Cards per Team

Valencia (home)

For1.8

Celta Vigo (away)

For2.3

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.563%
Under 19.537%
Over 22.549%
Under 22.551%
Over 25.535%
Under 25.565%
Expected total shots23.07

Valencia

Shots Over 9.573%
Shots Over 11.558%
Shots Over 13.543%
Expected shots13.10
On Target Over 3.559%
On Target Over 4.542%
On Target Over 5.527%
Expected on target4.29

Celta Vigo

Shots Over 9.550%
Shots Over 11.533%
Shots Over 13.520%
Expected shots9.97
On Target Over 3.547%
On Target Over 4.530%
On Target Over 5.518%
Expected on target3.59

Shots per Game

Valencia — total shots (home)13.8
Celta Vigo — total shots (away)8.6

Shots on Target

Valencia — on target (home)3.4
Celta Vigo — on target (away)3.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Valencia

Inside the box7.68
Outside the box4.13

Celta Vigo

Inside the box6.55
Outside the box3.5

Player Shots Valencia

L. Ramazani
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target11%
U. Sadiq
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target10%
A. Danjuma
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target10%
Hugo Duro
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target6%
M. Diakhaby
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Celta Vigo

Ferran Jutglà
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target27%
Borja Iglesias
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target20%
Bryan Zaragoza
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target16%
Pablo Durán
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target7%
W. Swedberg
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Valencia xG (home)1.31
Celta Vigo xG (away)1.32

Average Possession

47.63% Possession 50.42%

Team Comparison Valencia vs Celta Vigo

80.71% Pass accuracy 85.47%
405.92 Passes per match 497.66
-0.08 Goals prevented 0.06
12.08 Fouls committed 11.68
2.86 Goalkeeper saves 2.97
1.76 Offsides 2.17
15.87 Tackles per match 14.26

League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Valencia vs Celta Vigo prediction analysis

Review Valencia vs Celta Vigo with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance La Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
Scroll to Top