Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico-MG

Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico-MG prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions
Serie A 2025-08-10 19:00
Vasco DA Gama
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
37%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Atletico-MG
Away

Prediction Summary

1
43%
X
29%
2
28%
Under 2.5
63%
BTTS No
57%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Vasco DA Gama (Home)

Goals scored / match1.63
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate53%

Atletico-MG (Away)

Goals scored / match0.68
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate32%

Team Form last 5 matches

Vasco DA Gama
LLWLL
Atletico-MG
WLLDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

68% +0.5 42%
53% +1.5 16%
26% +2.5 5%
11% +3.5 5%
5% +4.5 0%
53% BTTS 32%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 37%. Model confidence is Medium.

Vasco DA Gama averages 1.63 goals scored at home, while Atletico-MG averages 0.68 goals scored away.

Model Strength
63%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
43%
Draw
29%
Away Win
28%
Over 2.5
37%
BTTS Yes
43%

Head-to-Head last 5

Dec 2025 Vasco DA Gama(A) 0 - 5 Atletico-MG Away
Aug 2025 Vasco DA Gama 1 - 1 Atletico-MG Draw
Dec 2024 Vasco DA Gama 2 - 0 Atletico-MG Home
Oct 2024 Vasco DA Gama 1 - 1 Atletico-MG Draw
Oct 2024 Vasco DA Gama(A) 1 - 2 Atletico-MG Away

In the last 5 meetings, Vasco DA Gama won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Vasco DA Gama — unbeaten run (home)0
Vasco DA Gama — scoring streak (home)0
Atletico-MG — winless run (away)2
Atletico-MG — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Vasco DA Gama Win (1)43%
Draw (X)29%
Atletico-MG Win (2)28%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

68% +0.5 42%
53% +1.5 16%
26% +2.5 5%
11% +3.5 5%
5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

32% -0.5 58%
47% -1.5 84%
74% -2.5 95%
89% -3.5 95%
95% -4.5 100%

Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico-MG — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Vasco DA Gama — scored (home)1.63
Vasco DA Gama — conceded (home)1.37
Atletico-MG — scored (away)0.68
Atletico-MG — conceded (away)1.37
Model expected combined goals2.17

Both Teams To Score

Yes43%
No57%

Rate per Team

Vasco DA Gama — BTTS matches (home)53%
Atletico-MG — BTTS matches (away)32%
Combined (simple average)42.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.584%
Under 6.516%
Over 7.579%
Under 7.521%
Over 8.558%
Under 8.542%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.547%
Under 10.553%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Vasco DA Gama (home)

Corners for4.9
Corners against4.9

Atletico-MG (away)

Corners for4.8
Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Vasco DA Gama
8 12 7 11 7
Atletico-MG
10 6 11 16 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Vasco DA Gama (home)

For1.8

Atletico-MG (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

Vasco DA Gama — total shots (home)14.9
Atletico-MG — total shots (away)12.5

Shots on Target

Vasco DA Gama — on target (home)5.2
Atletico-MG — on target (away)3.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Vasco DA Gama

Inside the box7.05
Outside the box5.55

Atletico-MG

Inside the box8.32
Outside the box6.76

Player Shots Vasco DA Gama

Rayan
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target74%
+1.5 On Target38%
Philippe Coutinho
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target17%
P. Vegetti
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target17%
A. Gómez
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target19%
Nuno Moreira
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%

Player Shots Atletico-MG

Rony
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target29%
Hulk
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target27%
T. Cuello
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
João Marcelo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
Guilherme Arana
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target12%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Vasco DA Gama xG (home)1.17
Atletico-MG xG (away)1.09

Average Possession

54.58% Possession 54.16%

Team Comparison Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico-MG

86.47% Pass accuracy 83.87%
481 Passes per match 451.13
-0.15 Goals prevented 0.03
13.18 Fouls committed 13.24
3 Goalkeeper saves 2.92
0.81 Offsides 1.83
13.68 Tackles per match 15.45

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico-MG prediction analysis

Review Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico-MG with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
Scroll to Top