What markets are included in the Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia

Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-09-24 22:30

Vasco DA Gama

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

44%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Bahia

Away

Prediction Summary

41%

27%

32%

Under 2.5

56%

BTTS · No edge

50%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Vasco DA Gama (Home)

Goals scored / match1.63

Goals conceded / match1.37

Over 2.5 rate26%

BTTS rate53%

Bahia (Away)

Goals scored / match0.89

Goals conceded / match1.68

Over 2.5 rate5%

BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Vasco DA Gama

LLWLL

Bahia

LWDWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

68% +0.5 63%

53% +1.5 21%

26% +2.5 5%

11% +3.5 0%

5% +4.5 0%

53% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 44%. Model confidence is Medium.

Vasco DA Gama averages 1.63 goals scored at home, while Bahia averages 0.89 goals scored away.

Model Strength

56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

41%

Draw

27%

Away Win

32%

Over 2.5

44%

BTTS Yes

50%

Head-to-Head last 5

Nov 2025 Vasco DA Gama(A) 0 - 1 Bahia Away

Sep 2025 Vasco DA Gama 3 - 1 Bahia Home

Oct 2024 Vasco DA Gama 3 - 2 Bahia Home

Jun 2024 Vasco DA Gama(A) 1 - 2 Bahia Away

Sep 2023 Vasco DA Gama(A) 1 - 1 Bahia Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Vasco DA Gama won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Vasco DA Gama — unbeaten run (home)0

Vasco DA Gama — scoring streak (home)0

Bahia — winless run (away)10

Bahia — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Vasco DA Gama Win (1)41%

Draw (X)27%

Bahia Win (2)32%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

68% +0.5 63%

53% +1.5 21%

26% +2.5 5%

11% +3.5 0%

5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

32% -0.5 37%

47% -1.5 79%

74% -2.5 95%

89% -3.5 100%

95% -4.5 100%

Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Vasco DA Gama — scored (home)1.63

Vasco DA Gama — conceded (home)1.37

Bahia — scored (away)0.89

Bahia — conceded (away)1.68

Model expected combined goals2.45

Both Teams To Score

Yes50%

No50%

Rate per Team

Vasco DA Gama — BTTS matches (home)53%

Bahia — BTTS matches (away)53%

Combined (simple average)53%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.590%

Under 5.510%

Over 6.584%

Under 6.516%

Over 7.579%

Under 7.521%

Over 8.566%

Under 8.534%

Over 9.553%

Under 9.547%

Over 10.540%

Under 10.560%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Vasco DA Gama (home)

Corners for4.9

Corners against4.9

Bahia (away)

Corners for4.2

Corners against6.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Vasco DA Gama

8 12 7 11 7

Bahia

12 12 11 8 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%

Under 0.52%

Over 1.592%

Under 1.58%

Over 2.577%

Under 2.523%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Vasco DA Gama (home)

For1.8

Bahia (away)

For2.5

Shots per Game

Vasco DA Gama — total shots (home)14.9

Bahia — total shots (away)11.8

Shots on Target

Vasco DA Gama — on target (home)5.2

Bahia — on target (away)3.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Vasco DA Gama

Inside the box7.05

Outside the box5.55

Bahia

Inside the box8.42

Outside the box5.45

Player Shots Vasco DA Gama

Rayan

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target74%

+1.5 On Target38%

Philippe Coutinho

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target17%

P. Vegetti

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target46%

+1.5 On Target17%

A. Gómez

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target19%

Nuno Moreira

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target42%

+1.5 On Target8%

Player Shots Bahia

Willian José

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target61%

+1.5 On Target18%

Erick Pulga

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target54%

+1.5 On Target13%

L. Rodríguez

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target22%

Ademir

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target17%

Rodrigo Nestor

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target9%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Vasco DA Gama xG (home)1.17

Bahia xG (away)1.37

Average Possession

54.58% Possession 55.26%

Team Comparison Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia

86.47% Pass accuracy 85.92%

481 Passes per match 468.39

-0.15 Goals prevented -0.11

13.18 Fouls committed 12.32

3 Goalkeeper saves 2.92

0.81 Offsides 1.25

13.68 Tackles per match 15.87

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia prediction analysis

Review Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights