Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians

Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-08-24 19:00
Vasco DA Gama
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
35%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Corinthians
Away

Prediction Summary

1
48%
X
29%
2
23%
Under 2.5
65%
BTTS No
60%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Vasco DA Gama (Home)

Goals scored / match1.63
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate53%

Corinthians (Away)

Goals scored / match0.79
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Vasco DA Gama
LLWLL
Corinthians
DLDLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

68% +0.5 68%
53% +1.5 5%
26% +2.5 5%
11% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%
53% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 35%. Model confidence is Medium.

Vasco DA Gama averages 1.63 goals scored at home, while Corinthians averages 0.79 goals scored away.

Model Strength
65%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
48%
Draw
29%
Away Win
23%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Yes
40%

Head-to-Head last 5

Dec 2025 Vasco DA Gama 1 - 2 Corinthians Away
Dec 2025 Vasco DA Gama(A) 0 - 0 Corinthians Draw
Aug 2025 Vasco DA Gama 2 - 3 Corinthians Away
Apr 2025 Vasco DA Gama(A) 0 - 3 Corinthians Away
Nov 2024 Vasco DA Gama(A) 1 - 3 Corinthians Away

In the last 5 meetings, Vasco DA Gama won 0, drew 1 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

Vasco DA Gama — unbeaten run (home)0
Vasco DA Gama — scoring streak (home)0
Corinthians — winless run (away)3
Corinthians — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Vasco DA Gama Win (1)48%
Draw (X)29%
Corinthians Win (2)23%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

68% +0.5 68%
53% +1.5 5%
26% +2.5 5%
11% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

32% -0.5 32%
47% -1.5 95%
74% -2.5 95%
89% -3.5 100%
95% -4.5 100%

Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Vasco DA Gama — scored (home)1.63
Vasco DA Gama — conceded (home)1.37
Corinthians — scored (away)0.79
Corinthians — conceded (away)1.53
Model expected combined goals2.11

Both Teams To Score

Yes40%
No60%

Rate per Team

Vasco DA Gama — BTTS matches (home)53%
Corinthians — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)53%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.584%
Under 5.516%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.571%
Under 7.529%
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.545%
Under 9.555%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Vasco DA Gama (home)

Corners for4.9
Corners against4.9

Corinthians (away)

Corners for4.0
Corners against4.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Vasco DA Gama
8 12 7 11 7
Corinthians
9 12 12 7 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.587%
Under 2.513%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.3

Yellow Cards per Team

Vasco DA Gama (home)

For1.8

Corinthians (away)

For3.3

Shots per Game

Vasco DA Gama — total shots (home)14.9
Corinthians — total shots (away)9.4

Shots on Target

Vasco DA Gama — on target (home)5.2
Corinthians — on target (away)2.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Vasco DA Gama

Inside the box7.05
Outside the box5.55

Corinthians

Inside the box7.39
Outside the box4.13

Player Shots Vasco DA Gama

Rayan
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target74%
+1.5 On Target38%
Philippe Coutinho
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target17%
P. Vegetti
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target17%
A. Gómez
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target19%
Nuno Moreira
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%

Player Shots Corinthians

Yuri Alberto
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target27%
M. Depay
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target26%
Igor Coronado
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target0%
Gustavo Henrique
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target9%
Vitinho
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Vasco DA Gama xG (home)1.17
Corinthians xG (away)1.31

Average Possession

54.58% Possession 55.74%

Team Comparison Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians

86.47% Pass accuracy 84.82%
481 Passes per match 467.61
-0.15 Goals prevented 0.03
13.18 Fouls committed 13.95
3 Goalkeeper saves 2.43
0.81 Offsides 1.79
13.68 Tackles per match 15.97

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians prediction analysis

Review Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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