Prediction Analysis: Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC
Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2025-05-17
21:30
Vasco DA Gama
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
22%
Confidence
High
Score
0-0
Fortaleza EC
Away
Prediction Summary
1
44%
X
34%
2
22%
Under 2.5
78%
BTTS No
71%
Confidence
High
Market Evidence
Vasco DA Gama (Home)
Goals scored / match1.63
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate53%
Fortaleza EC (Away)
Goals scored / match1.05
Goals conceded / match1.84
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate68%
Team Form last 5 matches
Vasco DA Gama
LLWLL
Fortaleza EC
LWWWW
Goals Comparison rate per team
68%
+0.5
74%
53%
+1.5
21%
26%
+2.5
11%
11%
+3.5
0%
5%
+4.5
0%
53%
BTTS
68%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 22%. Model confidence is High.
Vasco DA Gama averages 1.63 goals scored at home, while Fortaleza EC averages 1.05 goals scored away.
Model Strength
78%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
44%
Draw
34%
Away Win
22%
Over 2.5
22%
BTTS Yes
29%
Head-to-Head last 5
Oct 2025
Vasco DA Gama(A)
2 - 0
Fortaleza EC
Home
May 2025
Vasco DA Gama
3 - 0
Fortaleza EC
Home
Nov 2024
Vasco DA Gama(A)
0 - 3
Fortaleza EC
Away
Jul 2024
Vasco DA Gama
2 - 0
Fortaleza EC
Home
May 2024
Vasco DA Gama
3 - 3
Fortaleza EC
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Vasco DA Gama won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Vasco DA Gama — unbeaten run (home)0
Vasco DA Gama — scoring streak (home)0
Fortaleza EC — winless run (away)1
Fortaleza EC — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Vasco DA Gama Win (1)44%
Draw (X)34%
Fortaleza EC Win (2)22%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
68%
+0.5
74%
53%
+1.5
21%
26%
+2.5
11%
11%
+3.5
0%
5%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
32%
-0.5
26%
47%
-1.5
79%
74%
-2.5
89%
89%
-3.5
100%
95%
-4.5
100%
Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Vasco DA Gama — scored (home)1.63
Vasco DA Gama — conceded (home)1.37
Fortaleza EC — scored (away)1.05
Fortaleza EC — conceded (away)1.84
Model expected combined goals1.63
Both Teams To Score
Yes29%
No71%
Rate per Team
Vasco DA Gama — BTTS matches (home)53%
Fortaleza EC — BTTS matches (away)68%
Combined (simple average)60.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.590%
Under 5.510%
Over 6.584%
Under 6.516%
Over 7.579%
Under 7.521%
Over 8.564%
Under 8.536%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.545%
Under 10.555%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.00
Per-Team Corners own matches
Vasco DA Gama (home)
Corners for4.9
Corners against4.9
Fortaleza EC (away)
Corners for4.5
Corners against5.6
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Vasco DA Gama
8
12
7
11
7
Fortaleza EC
12
11
11
7
4
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.9
Yellow Cards per Team
Vasco DA Gama (home)
For1.8
Fortaleza EC (away)
For2.6
Shots per Game
Vasco DA Gama — total shots (home)14.9
Fortaleza EC — total shots (away)10.5
Shots on Target
Vasco DA Gama — on target (home)5.2
Fortaleza EC — on target (away)3.7
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Vasco DA Gama
Inside the box7.05
Outside the box5.55
Fortaleza EC
Inside the box7.63
Outside the box5.26
Player Shots Vasco DA Gama
Rayan
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target74%
+1.5 On Target38%
Philippe Coutinho
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target17%
P. Vegetti
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target17%
A. Gómez
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target19%
Nuno Moreira
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
Player Shots Fortaleza EC
A. Bareiro
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target19%
Breno Lopes
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target9%
J. Herrera
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target11%
T. Pochettino
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target19%
Deyverson
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Vasco DA Gama xG (home)1.17
Fortaleza EC xG (away)1.19
Average Possession
54.58%
Possession
44.18%
Team Comparison Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC
86.47%
Pass accuracy
79.24%
481
Passes per match
354.39
-0.15
Goals prevented
0.01
13.18
Fouls committed
14.18
3
Goalkeeper saves
3.63
0.81
Offsides
2.06
13.68
Tackles per match
17.79
League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC prediction analysis
Review Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights