Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Venezia vs Empoli

Venezia vs Empoli prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-01-04 14:00
Venezia
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
53%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Empoli
Away

Prediction Summary

1
35%
X
25%
2
40%
Over 2.5
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Venezia (Home)

Goals scored / match0.89
Goals conceded / match1.16
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate42%

Empoli (Away)

Goals scored / match1.21
Goals conceded / match1.74
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate74%

Team Form last 5 matches

Venezia
LLWDL
Empoli
LWWLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

53% +0.5 79%
32% +1.5 26%
5% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%
42% BTTS 74%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 53%. Model confidence is Medium.

Venezia averages 0.89 goals scored at home, while Empoli averages 1.21 goals scored away.

Model Strength
57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
35%
Draw
25%
Away Win
40%
Over 2.5
53%
BTTS Yes
57%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Venezia 2 - 0 Empoli Home
Oct 2025 Venezia(A) 1 - 1 Empoli Draw
Apr 2025 Venezia(A) 2 - 2 Empoli Draw
Jan 2025 Venezia 1 - 1 Empoli Draw
Jan 2022 Venezia 1 - 1 Empoli Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Venezia won 1, drew 4 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Venezia — unbeaten run (home)0
Venezia — scoring streak (home)2
Empoli — winless run (away)0
Empoli — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Venezia Win (1)35%
Draw (X)25%
Empoli Win (2)40%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

53% +0.5 79%
32% +1.5 26%
5% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

47% -0.5 21%
68% -1.5 74%
95% -2.5 89%
100% -3.5 95%
100% -4.5 100%

Venezia vs Empoli — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Venezia — scored (home)0.89
Venezia — conceded (home)1.16
Empoli — scored (away)1.21
Empoli — conceded (away)1.74
Model expected combined goals2.81

Both Teams To Score

Yes57%
No43%

Rate per Team

Venezia — BTTS matches (home)42%
Empoli — BTTS matches (away)74%
Combined (simple average)58%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.595%
Under 5.55%
Over 6.590%
Under 6.510%
Over 7.576%
Under 7.524%
Over 8.566%
Under 8.534%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.535%
Under 10.565%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Venezia (home)

Corners for4.0
Corners against5.5

Empoli (away)

Corners for4.5
Corners against5.6

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Venezia
9 6 6 16 12
Empoli
7 9 4 8 14

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Venezia (home)

For1.9

Empoli (away)

For2.5

Shots per Game

Venezia — total shots (home)11.1
Empoli — total shots (away)10.3

Shots on Target

Venezia — on target (home)3.9
Empoli — on target (away)3.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Venezia

Inside the box5.97
Outside the box4.21

Empoli

Inside the box5.53
Outside the box4.21

Player Shots Venezia

J. Pohjanpalo
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target25%
H. Nicolussi
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target14%
A. Duncan
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target19%
+1.5 On Target6%
G. Oristanio
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target5%
D. Fila
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Empoli

C. Kouamé
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target13%
L. Colombo
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target11%
S. Esposito
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target15%
P. Pellegri
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target9%
L. Cacace
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target21%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Venezia xG (home)0.99
Empoli xG (away)0.86

Average Possession

44.84% Possession 41.29%

Team Comparison Venezia vs Empoli

77.79% Pass accuracy 73.97%
359.11 Passes per match 324.47
0.04 Goals prevented -0.1
13.24 Fouls committed 14.95
3.7 Goalkeeper saves 2.78
1.57 Offsides 1.63
15.95 Tackles per match 18.13

League average xG this season is 1.22 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Venezia vs Empoli prediction analysis

Review Venezia vs Empoli with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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