Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Venezia vs Lecce

Venezia vs Lecce prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2024-11-25 19:45
Venezia
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
31%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Lecce
Away

Prediction Summary

1
50%
X
29%
2
21%
Under 2.5
69%
BTTS No
64%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Venezia (Home)

Goals scored / match0.89
Goals conceded / match1.16
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate42%

Lecce (Away)

Goals scored / match0.74
Goals conceded / match1.42
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Venezia
LLWDL
Lecce
WWDLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

53% +0.5 53%
32% +1.5 11%
5% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
42% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 31%. Model confidence is Medium.

Venezia averages 0.89 goals scored at home, while Lecce averages 0.74 goals scored away.

Model Strength
69%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
50%
Draw
29%
Away Win
21%
Over 2.5
31%
BTTS Yes
36%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2025 Venezia(A) 1 - 1 Lecce Draw
Nov 2024 Venezia 0 - 1 Lecce Away
May 2021 Venezia(A) 1 - 1 Lecce Draw
May 2021 Venezia 1 - 0 Lecce Home
Mar 2021 Venezia 2 - 3 Lecce Away

In the last 5 meetings, Venezia won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Venezia — unbeaten run (home)0
Venezia — scoring streak (home)2
Lecce — winless run (away)0
Lecce — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Venezia Win (1)50%
Draw (X)29%
Lecce Win (2)21%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

53% +0.5 53%
32% +1.5 11%
5% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

47% -0.5 47%
68% -1.5 89%
95% -2.5 89%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Venezia vs Lecce — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Venezia — scored (home)0.89
Venezia — conceded (home)1.16
Lecce — scored (away)0.74
Lecce — conceded (away)1.42
Model expected combined goals1.97

Both Teams To Score

Yes36%
No64%

Rate per Team

Venezia — BTTS matches (home)42%
Lecce — BTTS matches (away)42%
Combined (simple average)42%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.584%
Under 6.516%
Over 7.571%
Under 7.529%
Over 8.561%
Under 8.539%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Venezia (home)

Corners for4.0
Corners against5.5

Lecce (away)

Corners for3.5
Corners against6.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Venezia
9 6 6 16 12
Lecce
15 7 9 7 18

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4

Yellow Cards per Team

Venezia (home)

For1.9

Lecce (away)

For2.0

Shots per Game

Venezia — total shots (home)11.1
Lecce — total shots (away)10.8

Shots on Target

Venezia — on target (home)3.9
Lecce — on target (away)3.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Venezia

Inside the box5.97
Outside the box4.21

Lecce

Inside the box6.68
Outside the box5.26

Player Shots Venezia

J. Pohjanpalo
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target25%
H. Nicolussi
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target14%
A. Duncan
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target19%
+1.5 On Target6%
G. Oristanio
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target5%
D. Fila
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Lecce

K. N’Dri
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target9%
+1.5 On Target9%
Tete Morente
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target13%
N. Krstović
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target24%
P. Dorgu
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target14%
S. Pierotti
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Venezia xG (home)0.99
Lecce xG (away)0.92

Average Possession

44.84% Possession 43.55%

Team Comparison Venezia vs Lecce

77.79% Pass accuracy 77.63%
359.11 Passes per match 356.13
0.04 Goals prevented 0.18
13.24 Fouls committed 12.24
3.7 Goalkeeper saves 3.39
1.57 Offsides 1.37
15.95 Tackles per match 16.5

League average xG this season is 1.22 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Venezia vs Lecce prediction analysis

Review Venezia vs Lecce with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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