Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Verl vs FC Ingolstadt 04

Verl vs FC Ingolstadt 04 prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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3. Liga 2025-10-01 17:00
Verl
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
74%
Confidence
High
Score
1-1
FC Ingolstadt 04
Away

Prediction Summary

1
37%
X
21%
2
42%
Over 2.5
74%
BTTS Yes
73%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Verl (Home)

Goals scored / match2.63
Goals conceded / match0.95
Over 2.5 rate47%
BTTS rate58%

FC Ingolstadt 04 (Away)

Goals scored / match1.79
Goals conceded / match1.42
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate68%

Team Form last 5 matches

Verl
WLWLW
FC Ingolstadt 04
WWLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

95% +0.5 89%
79% +1.5 47%
47% +2.5 26%
32% +3.5 5%
11% +4.5 5%
58% BTTS 68%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 74%. Model confidence is High.

Verl averages 2.63 goals scored at home, while FC Ingolstadt 04 averages 1.79 goals scored away.

Model Strength
74%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
37%
Draw
21%
Away Win
42%
Over 2.5
74%
BTTS Yes
73%

Head-to-Head last 2

Mar 2026 Verl(A) 2 - 1 FC Ingolstadt 04 Home
Oct 2025 Verl 2 - 2 FC Ingolstadt 04 Draw

In the last 2 meetings, Verl won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Verl — unbeaten run (home)3
Verl — scoring streak (home)10
FC Ingolstadt 04 — winless run (away)0
FC Ingolstadt 04 — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Verl Win (1)37%
Draw (X)21%
FC Ingolstadt 04 Win (2)42%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

95% +0.5 89%
79% +1.5 47%
47% +2.5 26%
32% +3.5 5%
11% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

5% -0.5 11%
21% -1.5 53%
53% -2.5 74%
68% -3.5 95%
89% -4.5 95%

Verl vs FC Ingolstadt 04 — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Verl — scored (home)2.63
Verl — conceded (home)0.95
FC Ingolstadt 04 — scored (away)1.79
FC Ingolstadt 04 — conceded (away)1.42
Model expected combined goals3.88

Both Teams To Score

Yes73%
No27%

Rate per Team

Verl — BTTS matches (home)58%
FC Ingolstadt 04 — BTTS matches (away)68%
Combined (simple average)63%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.581%
Under 4.519%
Over 5.577%
Under 5.523%
Over 6.568%
Under 6.532%
Over 7.562%
Under 7.538%
Over 8.559%
Under 8.541%
Over 9.546%
Under 9.554%
Over 10.529%
Under 10.571%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

Verl (home)

Corners for6.4
Corners against3.9

FC Ingolstadt 04 (away)

Corners for4.2
Corners against5.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Verl
4 10 0 0 0
FC Ingolstadt 04
14 16 4 0 0

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.584%
Under 2.516%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.6

Yellow Cards per Team

Verl (home)

For1.8

FC Ingolstadt 04 (away)

For1.9

Shots per Game

Verl — total shots (home)17.3
FC Ingolstadt 04 — total shots (away)11.7

Shots on Target

Verl — on target (home)6.0
FC Ingolstadt 04 — on target (away)4.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Verl

Inside the box9.11
Outside the box5.89

FC Ingolstadt 04

Inside the box9.04
Outside the box4.11

Player Shots Verl

A. Besio
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target41%
B. Taz
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target40%
J. Arweiler
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target17%
O. Mhamdi
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target4%
T. Gayret
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target5%

Player Shots FC Ingolstadt 04

M. Costly
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target84%
+1.5 On Target32%
Yann Sturm
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target25%
D. Kaygin
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target12%
F. Carlsen
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target10%
F. Christensen
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Verl xG (home)1.63
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG (away)1.74

Average Possession

65.93% Possession 47.78%

Team Comparison Verl vs FC Ingolstadt 04

86.85% Pass accuracy 77.52%
594 Passes per match 406.19
0 Goals prevented 0
9.63 Fouls committed 11.56
2.67 Goalkeeper saves 4
2.33 Offsides 2.81
2.4 Tackles per match 3.28

League average xG this season is 1.6 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Verl vs FC Ingolstadt 04 prediction analysis

Review Verl vs FC Ingolstadt 04 with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from 3. Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance 3. Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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