Prediction Analysis: VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2026-09-04
18:30
VfB Stuttgart
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
55%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
1. FC Köln
Away
Prediction Summary
1
57%
X
23%
2
21%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
VfB Stuttgart (Home)
Goals scored / match1.76
Goals conceded / match0.94
Over 2.5 rate35%
BTTS rate41%
1. FC Köln (Away)
Goals scored / match1.12
Goals conceded / match1.94
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate71%
Team Form last 5 matches
VfB Stuttgart
DWDDL
1. FC Köln
LLDLD
Goals Comparison rate per team
82%
+0.5
82%
47%
+1.5
24%
35%
+2.5
6%
12%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
41%
BTTS
71%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 55%. Model confidence is Medium.
VfB Stuttgart averages 1.76 goals scored at home, while 1. FC Köln averages 1.12 goals scored away.
Model Strength
57%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
57%
Draw
23%
Away Win
21%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
Head-to-Head last 5
Feb 2026
VfB Stuttgart
3 - 1
1. FC Köln
Home
Sep 2025
VfB Stuttgart(A)
2 - 1
1. FC Köln
Home
Feb 2024
VfB Stuttgart
1 - 1
1. FC Köln
Draw
Sep 2023
VfB Stuttgart(A)
2 - 0
1. FC Köln
Home
Feb 2023
VfB Stuttgart
3 - 0
1. FC Köln
Home
In the last 5 meetings, VfB Stuttgart won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
VfB Stuttgart — unbeaten run (home)3
VfB Stuttgart — scoring streak (home)3
1. FC Köln — winless run (away)13
1. FC Köln — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
VfB Stuttgart Win (1)57%
Draw (X)23%
1. FC Köln Win (2)21%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
82%
+0.5
82%
47%
+1.5
24%
35%
+2.5
6%
12%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
18%
-0.5
18%
53%
-1.5
76%
65%
-2.5
94%
88%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
VfB Stuttgart — scored (home)1.76
VfB Stuttgart — conceded (home)0.94
1. FC Köln — scored (away)1.12
1. FC Köln — conceded (away)1.94
Model expected combined goals2.88
Both Teams To Score
Yes54%
No46%
Rate per Team
VfB Stuttgart — BTTS matches (home)41%
1. FC Köln — BTTS matches (away)71%
Combined (simple average)56%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.559%
Under 8.541%
Over 9.549%
Under 9.551%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.80
Per-Team Corners own matches
VfB Stuttgart (home)
Corners for5.9
Corners against4.0
1. FC Köln (away)
Corners for4.4
Corners against6.4
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
VfB Stuttgart
14
16
9
13
12
1. FC Köln
13
7
7
10
10
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.8
Yellow Cards per Team
VfB Stuttgart (home)
For1.9
1. FC Köln (away)
For1.9
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.578%
Under 19.522%
Over 22.565%
Under 22.535%
Over 25.552%
Under 25.548%
Expected total shots26.74
VfB Stuttgart
Shots Over 9.586%
Shots Over 11.574%
Shots Over 13.561%
Expected shots15.58
On Target Over 3.576%
On Target Over 4.562%
On Target Over 5.547%
Expected on target5.60
1. FC Köln
Shots Over 9.561%
Shots Over 11.543%
Shots Over 13.528%
Expected shots11.16
On Target Over 3.553%
On Target Over 4.536%
On Target Over 5.522%
Expected on target3.94
Shots per Game
VfB Stuttgart — total shots (home)16.7
1. FC Köln — total shots (away)11.7
Shots on Target
VfB Stuttgart — on target (home)6.2
1. FC Köln — on target (away)3.8
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
VfB Stuttgart
Inside the box10
Outside the box5.24
1. FC Köln
Inside the box9.41
Outside the box4
Player Shots VfB Stuttgart
D. Undav
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target48%
E. Demirović
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target20%
C. Führich
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target18%
B. El Khannouss
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target16%
J. Leweling
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target13%
Player Shots 1. FC Köln
S. El Mala
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target15%
J. Kamiński
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target21%
R. Ache
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target21%
L. Waldschmidt
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target13%
M. Bülter
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target16%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
VfB Stuttgart xG (home)1.77
1. FC Köln xG (away)1.53
Average Possession
57.68%
Possession
47.09%
Team Comparison VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln
83.71%
Pass accuracy
80.12%
517.09
Passes per match
408.32
0.29
Goals prevented
0.08
9.62
Fouls committed
8.32
3.21
Goalkeeper saves
2.79
2.16
Offsides
1.91
14.24
Tackles per match
14.21
League average xG this season is 1.57 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln prediction and preview
Preview VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights