Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: VfB Stuttgart vs FC St. Pauli

VfB Stuttgart vs FC St. Pauli prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Bundesliga 2024-12-21 14:30
VfB Stuttgart
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
65%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
FC St. Pauli
Away

Prediction Summary

1
52%
X
22%
2
26%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Yes
64%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

VfB Stuttgart (Home)

Goals scored / match2.06
Goals conceded / match1.59
Over 2.5 rate35%
BTTS rate71%

FC St. Pauli (Away)

Goals scored / match1.06
Goals conceded / match1.29
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate41%

Team Form last 5 matches

VfB Stuttgart
WWWLD
FC St. Pauli
LDLDD

Goals Comparison rate per team

88% +0.5 65%
59% +1.5 35%
35% +2.5 6%
18% +3.5 0%
6% +4.5 0%
71% BTTS 41%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 65%. Model confidence is Medium.

VfB Stuttgart averages 2.06 goals scored at home, while FC St. Pauli averages 1.06 goals scored away.

Model Strength
65%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
52%
Draw
22%
Away Win
26%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Yes
64%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 VfB Stuttgart(A) 1 - 2 FC St. Pauli Away
Sep 2025 VfB Stuttgart 2 - 0 FC St. Pauli Home
May 2025 VfB Stuttgart(A) 1 - 0 FC St. Pauli Home
Dec 2024 VfB Stuttgart 0 - 1 FC St. Pauli Away
Feb 2020 VfB Stuttgart(A) 1 - 1 FC St. Pauli Draw

In the last 5 meetings, VfB Stuttgart won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

VfB Stuttgart — unbeaten run (home)1
VfB Stuttgart — scoring streak (home)1
FC St. Pauli — winless run (away)2
FC St. Pauli — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

VfB Stuttgart Win (1)52%
Draw (X)22%
FC St. Pauli Win (2)26%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

88% +0.5 65%
59% +1.5 35%
35% +2.5 6%
18% +3.5 0%
6% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

12% -0.5 35%
41% -1.5 65%
65% -2.5 94%
82% -3.5 100%
94% -4.5 100%

VfB Stuttgart vs FC St. Pauli — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

VfB Stuttgart — scored (home)2.06
VfB Stuttgart — conceded (home)1.59
FC St. Pauli — scored (away)1.06
FC St. Pauli — conceded (away)1.29
Model expected combined goals3.36

Both Teams To Score

Yes64%
No36%

Rate per Team

VfB Stuttgart — BTTS matches (home)71%
FC St. Pauli — BTTS matches (away)41%
Combined (simple average)56%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.591%
Under 4.59%
Over 5.585%
Under 5.515%
Over 6.579%
Under 6.521%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.568%
Under 8.532%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.541%
Under 10.559%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.40

Per-Team Corners own matches

VfB Stuttgart (home)

Corners for6.1
Corners against3.7

FC St. Pauli (away)

Corners for3.6
Corners against5.3

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

VfB Stuttgart
8 11 8 13 13
FC St. Pauli
8 4 8 4 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.588%
Under 2.512%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.8

Yellow Cards per Team

VfB Stuttgart (home)

For2.4

FC St. Pauli (away)

For1.9

Shots per Game

VfB Stuttgart — total shots (home)16.4
FC St. Pauli — total shots (away)10.3

Shots on Target

VfB Stuttgart — on target (home)6.2
FC St. Pauli — on target (away)3.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

VfB Stuttgart

Inside the box10.12
Outside the box3.71

FC St. Pauli

Inside the box7.06
Outside the box4.09

Player Shots VfB Stuttgart

N. Woltemade
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target25%
E. Millot
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target21%
D. Undav
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target26%
E. Demirović
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target24%
C. Führich
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target24%
+1.5 On Target9%

Player Shots FC St. Pauli

J. Eggestein
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target19%
C. Metcalfe
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target10%
E. Saad
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%
C. Boukhalfa
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target12%
+1.5 On Target4%
J. Irvine
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

VfB Stuttgart xG (home)1.88
FC St. Pauli xG (away)1.03

Average Possession

57.5% Possession 43.97%

Team Comparison VfB Stuttgart vs FC St. Pauli

84.82% Pass accuracy 78.09%
538.38 Passes per match 406.94
0.04 Goals prevented 0.21
10.53 Fouls committed 10.38
2.5 Goalkeeper saves 2.97
1.88 Offsides 1.97
13.97 Tackles per match 15.91

League average xG this season is 1.46 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

VfB Stuttgart vs FC St. Pauli prediction analysis

Review VfB Stuttgart vs FC St. Pauli with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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