Prediction Analysis: VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05
VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2025-05-10
13:30
VfL Bochum
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
57%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
FSV Mainz 05
Away
Prediction Summary
1
27%
X
24%
2
50%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
VfL Bochum (Home)
Goals scored / match0.94
Goals conceded / match1.94
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate47%
FSV Mainz 05 (Away)
Goals scored / match1.82
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate47%
BTTS rate53%
Team Form last 5 matches
VfL Bochum
WLDDL
FSV Mainz 05
DWDLD
Goals Comparison rate per team
65%
+0.5
71%
24%
+1.5
59%
6%
+2.5
47%
0%
+3.5
6%
0%
+4.5
0%
47%
BTTS
53%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 57%. Model confidence is Medium.
VfL Bochum averages 0.94 goals scored at home, while FSV Mainz 05 averages 1.82 goals scored away.
Model Strength
58%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
27%
Draw
24%
Away Win
50%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2025
VfL Bochum
1 - 4
FSV Mainz 05
Away
Jan 2025
VfL Bochum(A)
0 - 2
FSV Mainz 05
Away
Mar 2024
VfL Bochum(A)
0 - 2
FSV Mainz 05
Away
Oct 2023
VfL Bochum
2 - 2
FSV Mainz 05
Draw
Jan 2023
VfL Bochum(A)
2 - 5
FSV Mainz 05
Away
In the last 5 meetings, VfL Bochum won 0, drew 1 and lost 4.
Current Streaks
VfL Bochum — unbeaten run (home)0
VfL Bochum — scoring streak (home)3
FSV Mainz 05 — winless run (away)0
FSV Mainz 05 — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
VfL Bochum Win (1)27%
Draw (X)24%
FSV Mainz 05 Win (2)50%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
65%
+0.5
71%
24%
+1.5
59%
6%
+2.5
47%
0%
+3.5
6%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
35%
-0.5
29%
76%
-1.5
41%
94%
-2.5
53%
100%
-3.5
94%
100%
-4.5
100%
VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05 — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
VfL Bochum — scored (home)0.94
VfL Bochum — conceded (home)1.94
FSV Mainz 05 — scored (away)1.82
FSV Mainz 05 — conceded (away)1.47
Model expected combined goals2.97
Both Teams To Score
Yes58%
No42%
Rate per Team
VfL Bochum — BTTS matches (home)47%
FSV Mainz 05 — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)50%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.594%
Under 4.56%
Over 5.594%
Under 5.56%
Over 6.591%
Under 6.59%
Over 7.579%
Under 7.521%
Over 8.565%
Under 8.535%
Over 9.562%
Under 9.538%
Over 10.553%
Under 10.547%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
VfL Bochum (home)
Corners for5.8
Corners against5.0
FSV Mainz 05 (away)
Corners for3.8
Corners against6.4
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
VfL Bochum
9
14
10
12
11
FSV Mainz 05
12
8
9
12
11
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.8
Yellow Cards per Team
VfL Bochum (home)
For1.9
FSV Mainz 05 (away)
For2.0
Shots per Game
VfL Bochum — total shots (home)14.5
FSV Mainz 05 — total shots (away)11.4
Shots on Target
VfL Bochum — on target (home)4.4
FSV Mainz 05 — on target (away)4.1
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
VfL Bochum
Inside the box8.03
Outside the box4.79
FSV Mainz 05
Inside the box8.82
Outside the box3.59
Player Shots VfL Bochum
G. Masouras
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target21%
M. Boadu
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target21%
M. Pannewig
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target7%
D. de Wit
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target18%
+1.5 On Target7%
P. Hofmann
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target9%
Player Shots FSV Mainz 05
Hong Hyun-Seok
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target4%
+1.5 On Target4%
J. Burkardt
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target34%
Lee Jae-Sung
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target12%
N. Weiper
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target13%
N. Amiri
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target13%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
VfL Bochum xG (home)1.24
FSV Mainz 05 xG (away)1.49
Average Possession
44.76%
Possession
50.32%
Team Comparison VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05
74.18%
Pass accuracy
77.18%
372.79
Passes per match
436.5
0.31
Goals prevented
0.19
13.71
Fouls committed
12
2.59
Goalkeeper saves
3.18
1.97
Offsides
2.26
17.65
Tackles per match
16.59
League average xG this season is 1.46 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction analysis
Review VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05 with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights