Prediction Analysis: VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2025-11-22
14:30
VfL Wolfsburg
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
77%
Confidence
High
Score
1-2
Bayer Leverkusen
Away
Prediction Summary
1
33%
X
20%
2
47%
Over 2.5
77%
BTTS Yes
75%
Confidence
High
Market Evidence
VfL Wolfsburg (Home)
Goals scored / match1.17
Goals conceded / match1.78
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate67%
Bayer Leverkusen (Away)
Goals scored / match1.76
Goals conceded / match1.65
Over 2.5 rate41%
BTTS rate65%
Team Form last 5 matches
VfL Wolfsburg
LDWLD
Bayer Leverkusen
DLWWL
Goals Comparison rate per team
67%
+0.5
76%
33%
+1.5
53%
17%
+2.5
41%
0%
+3.5
6%
0%
+4.5
0%
67%
BTTS
65%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 77%. Model confidence is High.
VfL Wolfsburg averages 1.17 goals scored at home, while Bayer Leverkusen averages 1.76 goals scored away.
Model Strength
77%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
33%
Draw
20%
Away Win
47%
Over 2.5
77%
BTTS Yes
75%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2026
VfL Wolfsburg(A)
3 - 6
Bayer Leverkusen
Away
Nov 2025
VfL Wolfsburg
1 - 3
Bayer Leverkusen
Away
Feb 2025
VfL Wolfsburg
0 - 0
Bayer Leverkusen
Draw
Sep 2024
VfL Wolfsburg(A)
3 - 4
Bayer Leverkusen
Away
Mar 2024
VfL Wolfsburg(A)
0 - 2
Bayer Leverkusen
Away
In the last 5 meetings, VfL Wolfsburg won 0, drew 1 and lost 4.
Current Streaks
VfL Wolfsburg — unbeaten run (home)1
VfL Wolfsburg — scoring streak (home)0
Bayer Leverkusen — winless run (away)1
Bayer Leverkusen — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
VfL Wolfsburg Win (1)33%
Draw (X)20%
Bayer Leverkusen Win (2)47%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
67%
+0.5
76%
33%
+1.5
53%
17%
+2.5
41%
0%
+3.5
6%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
33%
-0.5
24%
67%
-1.5
47%
83%
-2.5
59%
100%
-3.5
94%
100%
-4.5
100%
VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
VfL Wolfsburg — scored (home)1.17
VfL Wolfsburg — conceded (home)1.78
Bayer Leverkusen — scored (away)1.76
Bayer Leverkusen — conceded (away)1.65
Model expected combined goals4.08
Both Teams To Score
Yes75%
No25%
Rate per Team
VfL Wolfsburg — BTTS matches (home)67%
Bayer Leverkusen — BTTS matches (away)65%
Combined (simple average)66%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.594%
Under 4.56%
Over 5.589%
Under 5.511%
Over 6.589%
Under 6.511%
Over 7.580%
Under 7.520%
Over 8.574%
Under 8.526%
Over 9.566%
Under 9.534%
Over 10.548%
Under 10.552%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.30
Per-Team Corners own matches
VfL Wolfsburg (home)
Corners for5.3
Corners against5.8
Bayer Leverkusen (away)
Corners for4.5
Corners against4.9
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
VfL Wolfsburg
8
9
17
5
21
Bayer Leverkusen
15
7
10
13
11
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.597%
Under 1.53%
Over 2.580%
Under 2.520%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4
Yellow Cards per Team
VfL Wolfsburg (home)
For1.9
Bayer Leverkusen (away)
For2.2
Shots per Game
VfL Wolfsburg — total shots (home)13.8
Bayer Leverkusen — total shots (away)11.7
Shots on Target
VfL Wolfsburg — on target (home)4.8
Bayer Leverkusen — on target (away)3.8
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
VfL Wolfsburg
Inside the box7.47
Outside the box4.47
Bayer Leverkusen
Inside the box9.79
Outside the box5.38
Player Shots VfL Wolfsburg
D. Pejčinović
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target22%
K. Shiogai
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target23%
M. Amoura
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target6%
J. Wind
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
C. Eriksen
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target9%
Player Shots Bayer Leverkusen
P. Schick
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target46%
Álex Grimaldo
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target17%
Christian Kofane
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target21%
I. Maza
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target21%
N. Tella
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target12%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
VfL Wolfsburg xG (home)1.41
Bayer Leverkusen xG (away)1.93
Average Possession
45.44%
Possession
59.18%
Team Comparison VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
78%
Pass accuracy
87.68%
407.64
Passes per match
605.44
0.07
Goals prevented
0.16
11.47
Fouls committed
8.59
3.61
Goalkeeper saves
3.53
1.26
Offsides
1.34
16.19
Tackles per match
14.06
League average xG this season is 1.57 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction analysis
Review VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights