Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund

VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Bundesliga 2024-12-22 16:30
VfL Wolfsburg
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
68%
Confidence
Medium
Score
2-1
Borussia Dortmund
Away

Prediction Summary

1
50%
X
22%
2
29%
Over 2.5
68%
BTTS Yes
67%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

VfL Wolfsburg (Home)

Goals scored / match1.59
Goals conceded / match1.76
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate76%

Borussia Dortmund (Away)

Goals scored / match1.59
Goals conceded / match1.88
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate71%

Team Form last 5 matches

VfL Wolfsburg
WDLLD
Borussia Dortmund
WWWWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

82% +0.5 76%
47% +1.5 47%
12% +2.5 24%
12% +3.5 12%
6% +4.5 0%
76% BTTS 71%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 68%. Model confidence is Medium.

VfL Wolfsburg averages 1.59 goals scored at home, while Borussia Dortmund averages 1.59 goals scored away.

Model Strength
68%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
50%
Draw
22%
Away Win
29%
Over 2.5
68%
BTTS Yes
67%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 VfL Wolfsburg 1 - 2 Borussia Dortmund Away
Sep 2025 VfL Wolfsburg(A) 0 - 1 Borussia Dortmund Away
May 2025 VfL Wolfsburg(A) 0 - 4 Borussia Dortmund Away
Dec 2024 VfL Wolfsburg 1 - 3 Borussia Dortmund Away
Oct 2024 VfL Wolfsburg 1 - 0 Borussia Dortmund Home

In the last 5 meetings, VfL Wolfsburg won 1, drew 0 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

VfL Wolfsburg — unbeaten run (home)1
VfL Wolfsburg — scoring streak (home)1
Borussia Dortmund — winless run (away)0
Borussia Dortmund — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

VfL Wolfsburg Win (1)50%
Draw (X)22%
Borussia Dortmund Win (2)29%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

82% +0.5 76%
47% +1.5 47%
12% +2.5 24%
12% +3.5 12%
6% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

18% -0.5 24%
53% -1.5 53%
88% -2.5 76%
88% -3.5 88%
94% -4.5 100%

VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

VfL Wolfsburg — scored (home)1.59
VfL Wolfsburg — conceded (home)1.76
Borussia Dortmund — scored (away)1.59
Borussia Dortmund — conceded (away)1.88
Model expected combined goals3.5

Both Teams To Score

Yes67%
No33%

Rate per Team

VfL Wolfsburg — BTTS matches (home)76%
Borussia Dortmund — BTTS matches (away)71%
Combined (simple average)73.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%
Under 4.53%
Over 5.594%
Under 5.56%
Over 6.591%
Under 6.59%
Over 7.585%
Under 7.515%
Over 8.565%
Under 8.535%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.544%
Under 10.556%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

VfL Wolfsburg (home)

Corners for5.1
Corners against4.8

Borussia Dortmund (away)

Corners for4.8
Corners against5.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

VfL Wolfsburg
12 5 7 11 17
Borussia Dortmund
8 7 7 12 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

VfL Wolfsburg (home)

For1.9

Borussia Dortmund (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

VfL Wolfsburg — total shots (home)13.5
Borussia Dortmund — total shots (away)12.9

Shots on Target

VfL Wolfsburg — on target (home)4.5
Borussia Dortmund — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

VfL Wolfsburg

Inside the box8.32
Outside the box4.56

Borussia Dortmund

Inside the box10.26
Outside the box3.94

Player Shots VfL Wolfsburg

L. Majer
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target22%
L. Nmecha
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target16%
R. Baku
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target13%
J. Wind
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target10%
M. Amoura
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target16%

Player Shots Borussia Dortmund

S. Guirassy
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target37%
J. Bynoe-Gittens
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target22%
F. Nmecha
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target15%
+1.5 On Target8%
K. Adeyemi
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target20%
M. Sabitzer
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target23%
+1.5 On Target4%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

VfL Wolfsburg xG (home)1.43
Borussia Dortmund xG (away)1.82

Average Possession

46.09% Possession 59.24%

Team Comparison VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund

77.56% Pass accuracy 85.26%
402.35 Passes per match 552.74
0.1 Goals prevented -0.3
10.29 Fouls committed 9.71
3.24 Goalkeeper saves 2.74
1.48 Offsides 1.34
14.5 Tackles per match 15.18

League average xG this season is 1.46 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund prediction analysis

Review VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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