Prediction Analysis: VfL Wolfsburg vs FC St. Pauli
VfL Wolfsburg vs FC St. Pauli prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2026-01-14
17:30
VfL Wolfsburg
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
58%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
FC St. Pauli
Away
Prediction Summary
1
38%
X
24%
2
38%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
VfL Wolfsburg (Home)
Goals scored / match1.17
Goals conceded / match1.78
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate67%
FC St. Pauli (Away)
Goals scored / match0.71
Goals conceded / match1.71
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate47%
Team Form last 5 matches
VfL Wolfsburg
LDWLD
FC St. Pauli
LLLLD
Goals Comparison rate per team
67%
+0.5
59%
33%
+1.5
12%
17%
+2.5
0%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
67%
BTTS
47%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 58%. Model confidence is Medium.
VfL Wolfsburg averages 1.17 goals scored at home, while FC St. Pauli averages 0.71 goals scored away.
Model Strength
60%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
38%
Draw
24%
Away Win
38%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
Head-to-Head last 4
May 2026
VfL Wolfsburg(A)
3 - 1
FC St. Pauli
Home
Jan 2026
VfL Wolfsburg
2 - 1
FC St. Pauli
Home
Mar 2025
VfL Wolfsburg
1 - 1
FC St. Pauli
Draw
Oct 2024
VfL Wolfsburg(A)
0 - 0
FC St. Pauli
Draw
In the last 4 meetings, VfL Wolfsburg won 2, drew 2 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
VfL Wolfsburg — unbeaten run (home)1
VfL Wolfsburg — scoring streak (home)0
FC St. Pauli — winless run (away)4
FC St. Pauli — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
VfL Wolfsburg Win (1)38%
Draw (X)24%
FC St. Pauli Win (2)38%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
67%
+0.5
59%
33%
+1.5
12%
17%
+2.5
0%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
33%
-0.5
41%
67%
-1.5
88%
83%
-2.5
100%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
VfL Wolfsburg vs FC St. Pauli — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
VfL Wolfsburg — scored (home)1.17
VfL Wolfsburg — conceded (home)1.78
FC St. Pauli — scored (away)0.71
FC St. Pauli — conceded (away)1.71
Model expected combined goals3
Both Teams To Score
Yes60%
No40%
Rate per Team
VfL Wolfsburg — BTTS matches (home)67%
FC St. Pauli — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)57%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.588%
Under 4.512%
Over 5.586%
Under 5.514%
Over 6.586%
Under 6.514%
Over 7.583%
Under 7.517%
Over 8.577%
Under 8.523%
Over 9.569%
Under 9.531%
Over 10.557%
Under 10.543%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.30
Per-Team Corners own matches
VfL Wolfsburg (home)
Corners for5.3
Corners against5.8
FC St. Pauli (away)
Corners for3.6
Corners against5.9
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
VfL Wolfsburg
8
9
17
5
21
FC St. Pauli
13
12
14
8
17
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.3
Yellow Cards per Team
VfL Wolfsburg (home)
For1.9
FC St. Pauli (away)
For1.4
Shots per Game
VfL Wolfsburg — total shots (home)13.8
FC St. Pauli — total shots (away)9.9
Shots on Target
VfL Wolfsburg — on target (home)4.8
FC St. Pauli — on target (away)2.5
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
VfL Wolfsburg
Inside the box7.47
Outside the box4.47
FC St. Pauli
Inside the box6.09
Outside the box4.18
Player Shots VfL Wolfsburg
D. Pejčinović
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target22%
K. Shiogai
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target23%
M. Amoura
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target6%
J. Wind
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
C. Eriksen
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target9%
Player Shots FC St. Pauli
R. Jones
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target11%
A. Hountondji
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target19%
D. Sinani
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target23%
Mathias Pereira Lage
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target7%
M. Kaars
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target24%
+1.5 On Target10%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
VfL Wolfsburg xG (home)1.41
FC St. Pauli xG (away)0.92
Average Possession
45.44%
Possession
44.35%
Team Comparison VfL Wolfsburg vs FC St. Pauli
78%
Pass accuracy
77.06%
407.64
Passes per match
427.68
0.07
Goals prevented
0.25
11.47
Fouls committed
9.62
3.61
Goalkeeper saves
3.68
1.26
Offsides
1.94
16.19
Tackles per match
16.91
League average xG this season is 1.57 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
VfL Wolfsburg vs FC St. Pauli prediction analysis
Review VfL Wolfsburg vs FC St. Pauli with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights