Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Vila Nova vs Sport Recife

Vila Nova vs Sport Recife prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions
Serie B 2026-08-08 19:00
Vila Nova
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
61%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Sport Recife
Away

Prediction Summary

1
57%
X
22%
2
22%
Over 2.5
61%
BTTS Yes
60%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Vila Nova (Home)

Goals scored / match2.67
Goals conceded / match1.67
Over 2.5 rate33%
BTTS rate100%

Sport Recife (Away)

Goals scored / match0.67
Goals conceded / match1.33
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate67%

Team Form last 5 matches

Vila Nova
WLLWL
Sport Recife
DDDLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 67%
100% +1.5 0%
33% +2.5 0%
33% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
100% BTTS 67%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 61%. Model confidence is Medium.

Vila Nova averages 2.67 goals scored at home, while Sport Recife averages 0.67 goals scored away.

Model Strength
61%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
57%
Draw
22%
Away Win
22%
Over 2.5
61%
BTTS Yes
60%

Head-to-Head last 5

Aug 2024 Vila Nova 2 - 0 Sport Recife Home
Apr 2024 Vila Nova(A) 0 - 2 Sport Recife Away
Aug 2023 Vila Nova 0 - 1 Sport Recife Away
Jun 2023 Vila Nova(A) 0 - 1 Sport Recife Away
Nov 2022 Vila Nova 0 - 0 Sport Recife Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Vila Nova won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Vila Nova — unbeaten run (home)3
Vila Nova — scoring streak (home)3
Sport Recife — winless run (away)3
Sport Recife — clean sheets (away, last 3)0 of 3

1X2 Probability model

Vila Nova Win (1)57%
Draw (X)22%
Sport Recife Win (2)22%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 67%
100% +1.5 0%
33% +2.5 0%
33% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 33%
0% -1.5 100%
67% -2.5 100%
67% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Vila Nova vs Sport Recife — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Vila Nova — scored (home)2.67
Vila Nova — conceded (home)1.67
Sport Recife — scored (away)0.67
Sport Recife — conceded (away)1.33
Model expected combined goals3.17

Both Teams To Score

Yes60%
No40%

Rate per Team

Vila Nova — BTTS matches (home)100%
Sport Recife — BTTS matches (away)67%
Combined (simple average)83.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Vila Nova (home)

Corners for4.0
Corners against6.3

Sport Recife (away)

Corners for4.0
Corners against3.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Vila Nova
10 12 1 7 7
Sport Recife
10 8 6 8 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.584%
Under 2.516%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4

Yellow Cards per Team

Vila Nova (home)

For1.0

Sport Recife (away)

For1.7

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.576%
Under 19.524%
Over 22.561%
Under 22.539%
Over 25.546%
Under 25.554%
Expected total shots25.43

Vila Nova

Shots Over 9.581%
Shots Over 11.567%
Shots Over 13.551%
Expected shots14.09
On Target Over 3.565%
On Target Over 4.547%
On Target Over 5.531%
Expected on target4.56

Sport Recife

Shots Over 9.563%
Shots Over 11.545%
Shots Over 13.529%
Expected shots11.33
On Target Over 3.546%
On Target Over 4.528%
On Target Over 5.515%
Expected on target3.52

Shots per Game

Vila Nova — total shots (home)13.0
Sport Recife — total shots (away)11.7

Shots on Target

Vila Nova — on target (home)5.0
Sport Recife — on target (away)3.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Vila Nova

Inside the box4.83
Outside the box5.17

Sport Recife

Inside the box9.8
Outside the box3.8

Player Shots Vila Nova

Janderson
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target33%
Emerson Urso
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target0%
Dudu Dos Santos
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target0%
André Luís
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
Marquinhos Gabriel
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%

Player Shots Sport Recife

Biel
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
Chrystian Barletta
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target25%
Perotti
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target100%
+1.5 On Target20%
Iury Castilho
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target0%
Zé Gabriel
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Vila Nova xG (home)1.25
Sport Recife xG (away)1.45

Average Possession

49.5% Possession 53.6%

Team Comparison Vila Nova vs Sport Recife

78.17% Pass accuracy 85.17%
310.17 Passes per match 400
-0.55 Goals prevented 0.28
12.83 Fouls committed 15.2
3.33 Goalkeeper saves 3.4
1.67 Offsides 0.2
13.33 Tackles per match 13

League average xG this season is 1.13 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Vila Nova vs Sport Recife prediction analysis

Review Vila Nova vs Sport Recife with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie B.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie B
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
Scroll to Top