What markets are included in the Villarreal vs Alaves prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Villarreal vs Alaves prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Villarreal vs Alaves

Villarreal vs Alaves prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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La Liga 2026-01-10 15:15

Villarreal

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

41%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Alaves

Away

Prediction Summary

69%

21%

10%

Under 2.5

59%

BTTS No

66%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Villarreal (Home)

Goals scored / match2.53

Goals conceded / match1

Over 2.5 rate37%

BTTS rate63%

Alaves (Away)

Goals scored / match1

Goals conceded / match1.63

Over 2.5 rate11%

BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Villarreal

WLLDW

Alaves

LWWDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

89% +0.5 63%

84% +1.5 21%

37% +2.5 11%

26% +3.5 5%

16% +4.5 0%

63% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 41%. Model confidence is Medium.

Villarreal averages 2.53 goals scored at home, while Alaves averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength

69%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

69%

Draw

21%

Away Win

10%

Over 2.5

41%

BTTS Yes

34%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Villarreal(A) 1 - 1 Alaves Draw

Jan 2026 Villarreal 3 - 1 Alaves Home

Mar 2025 Villarreal(A) 0 - 1 Alaves Away

Nov 2024 Villarreal 3 - 0 Alaves Home

Feb 2024 Villarreal(A) 1 - 1 Alaves Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Villarreal won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Villarreal — unbeaten run (home)1

Villarreal — scoring streak (home)8

Alaves — winless run (away)0

Alaves — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Villarreal Win (1)69%

Draw (X)21%

Alaves Win (2)10%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

89% +0.5 63%

84% +1.5 21%

37% +2.5 11%

26% +3.5 5%

16% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

11% -0.5 37%

16% -1.5 79%

63% -2.5 89%

74% -3.5 95%

84% -4.5 100%

Villarreal vs Alaves — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Villarreal — scored (home)2.53

Villarreal — conceded (home)1

Alaves — scored (away)1

Alaves — conceded (away)1.63

Model expected combined goals2.32

Both Teams To Score

Yes34%

No66%

Rate per Team

Villarreal — BTTS matches (home)63%

Alaves — BTTS matches (away)53%

Combined (simple average)58%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%

Under 4.55%

Over 5.592%

Under 5.58%

Over 6.590%

Under 6.510%

Over 7.574%

Under 7.526%

Over 8.569%

Under 8.531%

Over 9.553%

Under 9.547%

Over 10.542%

Under 10.558%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Villarreal (home)

Corners for5.4

Corners against4.6

Alaves (away)

Corners for3.9

Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Villarreal

10 9 10 10 14

Alaves

11 10 10 7 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.595%

Under 1.55%

Over 2.571%

Under 2.529%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Villarreal (home)

For1.6

Alaves (away)

For2.8

Shots per Game

Villarreal — total shots (home)14.5

Alaves — total shots (away)11.4

Shots on Target

Villarreal — on target (home)5.8

Alaves — on target (away)3.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Villarreal

Inside the box8.45

Outside the box3.53

Alaves

Inside the box7.76

Outside the box4.39

Player Shots Villarreal

Etta Eyong

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target33%

G. Mikautadze

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target63%

+1.5 On Target28%

Gerard Moreno

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target14%

N. Pépé

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target14%

Alberto Moleiro

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target41%

+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Alaves

Toni Martínez

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target59%

+1.5 On Target24%

L. Boyé

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target17%

I. Diabate

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target10%

A. Rebbach

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target0%

F. Garcés

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target30%

+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Villarreal xG (home)1.53

Alaves xG (away)1.23

Average Possession

44.53% Possession 48.08%

Team Comparison Villarreal vs Alaves

82.11% Pass accuracy 79.45%

409.03 Passes per match 404.45

-0.29 Goals prevented -0.06

11.95 Fouls committed 14.92

2.71 Goalkeeper saves 2.62

2 Offsides 2.18

17.32 Tackles per match 18.24

League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Villarreal vs Alaves prediction analysis

Review Villarreal vs Alaves with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance La Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights