Prediction Analysis: Vitesse vs Waalwijk
Vitesse vs Waalwijk prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Eerste Divisie
2026-08-07
18:00
Vitesse
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
63%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Waalwijk
Away
Prediction Summary
1
40%
X
23%
2
37%
Over 2.5
63%
BTTS Yes
64%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Vitesse (Home)
Goals scored / match1.74
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate74%
Waalwijk (Away)
Goals scored / match1.71
Goals conceded / match1.57
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate76%
Team Form last 5 matches
Vitesse
LDWWD
Waalwijk
DLDDW
Goals Comparison rate per team
84%
+0.5
86%
53%
+1.5
52%
21%
+2.5
24%
5%
+3.5
10%
5%
+4.5
0%
74%
BTTS
76%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 63%. Model confidence is Medium.
Vitesse averages 1.74 goals scored at home, while Waalwijk averages 1.71 goals scored away.
Model Strength
64%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
40%
Draw
23%
Away Win
37%
Over 2.5
63%
BTTS Yes
64%
Head-to-Head last 5
Dec 2025
Vitesse
2 - 1
Waalwijk
Home
Sep 2025
Vitesse(A)
1 - 1
Waalwijk
Draw
Oct 2024
Vitesse(A)
1 - 3
Waalwijk
Away
Mar 2024
Vitesse(A)
1 - 3
Waalwijk
Away
Sep 2023
Vitesse
0 - 2
Waalwijk
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Vitesse won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Vitesse — unbeaten run (home)3
Vitesse — scoring streak (home)0
Waalwijk — winless run (away)4
Waalwijk — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Vitesse Win (1)40%
Draw (X)23%
Waalwijk Win (2)37%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
84%
+0.5
86%
53%
+1.5
52%
21%
+2.5
24%
5%
+3.5
10%
5%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
16%
-0.5
14%
47%
-1.5
48%
79%
-2.5
76%
95%
-3.5
90%
95%
-4.5
100%
Vitesse vs Waalwijk — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Vitesse — scored (home)1.74
Vitesse — conceded (home)1.47
Waalwijk — scored (away)1.71
Waalwijk — conceded (away)1.57
Model expected combined goals3.25
Both Teams To Score
Yes64%
No36%
Rate per Team
Vitesse — BTTS matches (home)74%
Waalwijk — BTTS matches (away)76%
Combined (simple average)75%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.567%
Under 8.533%
Over 9.557%
Under 9.543%
Over 10.546%
Under 10.554%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
Vitesse (home)
Corners for5.7
Corners against3.8
Waalwijk (away)
Corners for4.7
Corners against5.3
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Vitesse
11
7
9
10
11
Waalwijk
15
1
11
11
9
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.3
Yellow Cards per Team
Vitesse (home)
For2.2
Waalwijk (away)
For1.6
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.579%
Under 19.521%
Over 22.566%
Under 22.534%
Over 25.552%
Under 25.548%
Expected total shots26.76
Vitesse
Shots Over 9.581%
Shots Over 11.567%
Shots Over 13.551%
Expected shots14.17
On Target Over 3.568%
On Target Over 4.552%
On Target Over 5.536%
Expected on target4.88
Waalwijk
Shots Over 9.572%
Shots Over 11.555%
Shots Over 13.539%
Expected shots12.58
On Target Over 3.569%
On Target Over 4.552%
On Target Over 5.537%
Expected on target4.91
Shots per Game
Vitesse — total shots (home)16.1
Waalwijk — total shots (away)14.5
Shots on Target
Vitesse — on target (home)5.1
Waalwijk — on target (away)5.3
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Vitesse
Inside the box9
Outside the box5.58
Waalwijk
Inside the box9.87
Outside the box4.92
Player Shots Vitesse
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target18%
+1.5 On Target14%
E. Huth
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target16%
Nino Zonneveld
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target15%
D. Hoogewerf
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target14%
Adam Tahaui
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target14%
Player Shots Waalwijk
J. Altena
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target33%
T. van der Leij
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target21%
R. van der Venne
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target10%
J. Uneken
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target20%
D. Weidmann
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target75%
+1.5 On Target25%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Vitesse xG (home)1.6
Waalwijk xG (away)1.96
Average Possession
46.45%
Possession
50.5%
Team Comparison Vitesse vs Waalwijk
77.74%
Pass accuracy
82.61%
372.16
Passes per match
426.18
0
Goals prevented
0
12.71
Fouls committed
10.79
3.42
Goalkeeper saves
2.63
1.97
Offsides
1.67
19.47
Tackles per match
18.03
League average xG this season is 1.67 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Vitesse vs Waalwijk prediction analysis
Review Vitesse vs Waalwijk with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Eerste Divisie.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Eerste Divisie
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights