Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Vitoria vs Botafogo

Vitoria vs Botafogo prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-11-09 19:00
Vitoria
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
27%
Confidence
High
Score
0-0
Botafogo
Away

Prediction Summary

1
32%
X
33%
2
35%
Under 2.5
73%
BTTS No
65%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Vitoria (Home)

Goals scored / match1.11
Goals conceded / match0.79
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate42%

Botafogo (Away)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match0.74
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate21%

Team Form last 5 matches

Vitoria
WLWWD
Botafogo
WDDWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 47%
37% +1.5 32%
0% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 5%
42% BTTS 21%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 27%. Model confidence is High.

Vitoria averages 1.11 goals scored at home, while Botafogo averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength
73%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
32%
Draw
33%
Away Win
35%
Over 2.5
27%
BTTS Yes
35%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jul 2026 Vitoria(A) 0 - 0 Botafogo Draw
Nov 2025 Vitoria 0 - 0 Botafogo Draw
Jul 2025 Vitoria(A) 0 - 0 Botafogo Draw
Nov 2024 Vitoria(A) 1 - 1 Botafogo Draw
Jul 2024 Vitoria 0 - 1 Botafogo Away

In the last 5 meetings, Vitoria won 0, drew 4 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Vitoria — unbeaten run (home)4
Vitoria — scoring streak (home)2
Botafogo — winless run (away)4
Botafogo — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Vitoria Win (1)32%
Draw (X)33%
Botafogo Win (2)35%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 47%
37% +1.5 32%
0% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 53%
63% -1.5 68%
100% -2.5 89%
100% -3.5 95%
100% -4.5 95%

Vitoria vs Botafogo — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Vitoria — scored (home)1.11
Vitoria — conceded (home)0.79
Botafogo — scored (away)1
Botafogo — conceded (away)0.74
Model expected combined goals1.81

Both Teams To Score

Yes35%
No65%

Rate per Team

Vitoria — BTTS matches (home)42%
Botafogo — BTTS matches (away)21%
Combined (simple average)31.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.598%
Under 5.52%
Over 6.592%
Under 6.58%
Over 7.584%
Under 7.516%
Over 8.561%
Under 8.539%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.532%
Under 10.568%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Vitoria (home)

Corners for5.4
Corners against4.8

Botafogo (away)

Corners for4.1
Corners against5.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Vitoria
9 10 12 5 12
Botafogo
12 8 12 8 4

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.584%
Under 2.516%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Vitoria (home)

For3.1

Botafogo (away)

For2.3

Shots per Game

Vitoria — total shots (home)13.7
Botafogo — total shots (away)12.3

Shots on Target

Vitoria — on target (home)4.3
Botafogo — on target (away)3.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Vitoria

Inside the box6.95
Outside the box4.61

Botafogo

Inside the box9.21
Outside the box5.11

Player Shots Vitoria

Wellington Rato
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
Matheuzinho
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target10%
Aitor Cantalapiedra
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target16%
Renato Kayzer
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target17%
Erick
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target6%

Player Shots Botafogo

Igor Jesus
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target80%
+1.5 On Target40%
Chris Ramos
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target15%
Arthur Cabral
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target10%
J. Savarino
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target15%
Artur
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Vitoria xG (home)1.12
Botafogo xG (away)1.32

Average Possession

41.26% Possession 51.76%

Team Comparison Vitoria vs Botafogo

78.61% Pass accuracy 85.26%
324.47 Passes per match 454.05
-0.04 Goals prevented 0.12
14.61 Fouls committed 14.61
3.92 Goalkeeper saves 2.47
1.83 Offsides 1.36
14.87 Tackles per match 15.24

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Vitoria vs Botafogo prediction analysis

Review Vitoria vs Botafogo with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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