Prediction Analysis: Vitoria vs Palmeiras
Vitoria vs Palmeiras prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2026-07-30
00:30
Vitoria
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
48%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Palmeiras
Away
Prediction Summary
1
34%
X
28%
2
38%
Under 2.5
58%
BTTS No
52%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Vitoria (Home)
Goals scored / match1.1
Goals conceded / match0.75
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate40%
Palmeiras (Away)
Goals scored / match1.7
Goals conceded / match1.15
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate65%
Team Form last 5 matches
Vitoria
DWWLW
Palmeiras
WWWLD
Goals Comparison rate per team
75%
+0.5
90%
35%
+1.5
60%
0%
+2.5
20%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
40%
BTTS
65%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 48%. Model confidence is Medium.
Vitoria averages 1.1 goals scored at home, while Palmeiras averages 1.7 goals scored away.
Model Strength
58%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
34%
Draw
28%
Away Win
38%
Over 2.5
42%
BTTS Yes
48%
Head-to-Head last 4
Nov 2025
Vitoria(A)
0 - 0
Palmeiras
Draw
Aug 2025
Vitoria
2 - 2
Palmeiras
Draw
Jul 2024
Vitoria(A)
2 - 0
Palmeiras
Home
Apr 2024
Vitoria
0 - 1
Palmeiras
Away
In the last 4 meetings, Vitoria won 1, drew 2 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Vitoria — unbeaten run (home)5
Vitoria — scoring streak (home)3
Palmeiras — winless run (away)0
Palmeiras — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Vitoria Win (1)34%
Draw (X)28%
Palmeiras Win (2)38%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
75%
+0.5
90%
35%
+1.5
60%
0%
+2.5
20%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
25%
-0.5
10%
65%
-1.5
40%
100%
-2.5
80%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Vitoria vs Palmeiras — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Vitoria — scored (home)1.1
Vitoria — conceded (home)0.75
Palmeiras — scored (away)1.7
Palmeiras — conceded (away)1.15
Model expected combined goals2.35
Both Teams To Score
Yes48%
No52%
Rate per Team
Vitoria — BTTS matches (home)40%
Palmeiras — BTTS matches (away)65%
Combined (simple average)52.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.10
Per-Team Corners own matches
Vitoria (home)
Corners for5.4
Corners against4.8
Palmeiras (away)
Corners for6.0
Corners against5.3
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Vitoria
12
5
12
5
10
Palmeiras
9
13
8
16
14
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.593%
Under 1.57%
Over 2.580%
Under 2.520%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.8
Yellow Cards per Team
Vitoria (home)
For3.1
Palmeiras (away)
For2.2
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.581%
Under 19.519%
Over 22.569%
Under 22.531%
Over 25.555%
Under 25.545%
Expected total shots27.33
Vitoria
Shots Over 9.582%
Shots Over 11.568%
Shots Over 13.552%
Expected shots14.28
On Target Over 3.566%
On Target Over 4.549%
On Target Over 5.534%
Expected on target4.72
Palmeiras
Shots Over 9.575%
Shots Over 11.559%
Shots Over 13.543%
Expected shots13.05
On Target Over 3.563%
On Target Over 4.546%
On Target Over 5.530%
Expected on target4.50
Shots per Game
Vitoria — total shots (home)13.7
Palmeiras — total shots (away)13.5
Shots on Target
Vitoria — on target (home)4.3
Palmeiras — on target (away)5.0
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Vitoria
Inside the box6.95
Outside the box4.61
Palmeiras
Inside the box8.79
Outside the box6.61
Player Shots Vitoria
Renato Kayzer
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target19%
Wellington Rato
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
Matheuzinho
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target10%
Aitor Cantalapiedra
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target16%
Erick
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target6%
Player Shots Palmeiras
Vitor Roque
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target30%
J. López
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target73%
+1.5 On Target30%
F. Torres
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target14%
Luighi Hanri
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target18%
Andreas Pereira
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target7%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Vitoria xG (home)1.12
Palmeiras xG (away)1.49
Average Possession
41.26%
Possession
52.34%
Team Comparison Vitoria vs Palmeiras
78.61%
Pass accuracy
82.21%
324.47
Passes per match
406.61
-0.04
Goals prevented
0.13
14.61
Fouls committed
14.61
3.92
Goalkeeper saves
2.95
1.83
Offsides
1.79
15.2
Tackles per match
16.89
League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Vitoria vs Palmeiras prediction analysis
Review Vitoria vs Palmeiras with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights