Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli

Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Bundesliga 2025-04-27 15:30
Werder Bremen
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
52%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
FC St. Pauli
Away

Prediction Summary

1
37%
X
25%
2
38%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Werder Bremen (Home)

Goals scored / match1.24
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate47%

FC St. Pauli (Away)

Goals scored / match1.06
Goals conceded / match1.29
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate41%

Team Form last 5 matches

Werder Bremen
WDDDW
FC St. Pauli
LDLDD

Goals Comparison rate per team

65% +0.5 65%
41% +1.5 35%
12% +2.5 6%
6% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 41%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 52%. Model confidence is Medium.

Werder Bremen averages 1.24 goals scored at home, while FC St. Pauli averages 1.06 goals scored away.

Model Strength
56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
37%
Draw
25%
Away Win
38%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
56%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Werder Bremen(A) 1 - 2 FC St. Pauli Away
Oct 2025 Werder Bremen 1 - 0 FC St. Pauli Home
Apr 2025 Werder Bremen 0 - 0 FC St. Pauli Draw
Dec 2024 Werder Bremen(A) 2 - 0 FC St. Pauli Home
Apr 2022 Werder Bremen(A) 1 - 1 FC St. Pauli Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Werder Bremen won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Werder Bremen — unbeaten run (home)4
Werder Bremen — scoring streak (home)0
FC St. Pauli — winless run (away)2
FC St. Pauli — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Werder Bremen Win (1)37%
Draw (X)25%
FC St. Pauli Win (2)38%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

65% +0.5 65%
41% +1.5 35%
12% +2.5 6%
6% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

35% -0.5 35%
59% -1.5 65%
88% -2.5 94%
94% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Werder Bremen — scored (home)1.24
Werder Bremen — conceded (home)1.53
FC St. Pauli — scored (away)1.06
FC St. Pauli — conceded (away)1.29
Model expected combined goals2.77

Both Teams To Score

Yes56%
No44%

Rate per Team

Werder Bremen — BTTS matches (home)47%
FC St. Pauli — BTTS matches (away)41%
Combined (simple average)44%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.591%
Under 4.59%
Over 5.585%
Under 5.515%
Over 6.576%
Under 6.524%
Over 7.576%
Under 7.524%
Over 8.565%
Under 8.535%
Over 9.544%
Under 9.556%
Over 10.535%
Under 10.565%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Werder Bremen (home)

Corners for5.1
Corners against4.3

FC St. Pauli (away)

Corners for3.6
Corners against5.3

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Werder Bremen
9 4 10 15 10
FC St. Pauli
8 4 8 4 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Werder Bremen (home)

For2.3

FC St. Pauli (away)

For1.9

Shots per Game

Werder Bremen — total shots (home)13.5
FC St. Pauli — total shots (away)10.3

Shots on Target

Werder Bremen — on target (home)3.9
FC St. Pauli — on target (away)3.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Werder Bremen

Inside the box9.47
Outside the box3.15

FC St. Pauli

Inside the box7.06
Outside the box4.09

Player Shots Werder Bremen

K. Topp
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target11%
+1.5 On Target5%
M. Ducksch
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
André Silva
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target43%
O. Burke
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target12%
J. Stage
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots FC St. Pauli

J. Eggestein
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target19%
C. Metcalfe
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target10%
E. Saad
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%
C. Boukhalfa
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target12%
+1.5 On Target4%
J. Irvine
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Werder Bremen xG (home)1.51
FC St. Pauli xG (away)1.03

Average Possession

49.94% Possession 43.97%

Team Comparison Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli

80.94% Pass accuracy 78.09%
469.15 Passes per match 406.94
-0 Goals prevented 0.21
9.85 Fouls committed 10.38
3.06 Goalkeeper saves 2.97
2.18 Offsides 1.97
16.03 Tackles per match 15.91

League average xG this season is 1.46 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli prediction analysis

Review Werder Bremen vs FC St. Pauli with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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