Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel

Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Bundesliga 2024-11-09 14:30
Werder Bremen
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
63%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Holstein Kiel
Away

Prediction Summary

1
28%
X
22%
2
49%
Over 2.5
63%
BTTS Yes
63%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Werder Bremen (Home)

Goals scored / match1.24
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate47%

Holstein Kiel (Away)

Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match2.29
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate88%

Team Form last 5 matches

Werder Bremen
WDDDW
Holstein Kiel
LLWWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

65% +0.5 94%
41% +1.5 41%
12% +2.5 12%
6% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 88%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 63%. Model confidence is Medium.

Werder Bremen averages 1.24 goals scored at home, while Holstein Kiel averages 1.47 goals scored away.

Model Strength
63%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
28%
Draw
22%
Away Win
49%
Over 2.5
63%
BTTS Yes
63%

Head-to-Head last 4

Mar 2025 Werder Bremen(A) 3 - 0 Holstein Kiel Home
Nov 2024 Werder Bremen 2 - 1 Holstein Kiel Home
Apr 2022 Werder Bremen 2 - 3 Holstein Kiel Away
Nov 2021 Werder Bremen(A) 1 - 2 Holstein Kiel Away

In the last 4 meetings, Werder Bremen won 2, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Werder Bremen — unbeaten run (home)4
Werder Bremen — scoring streak (home)0
Holstein Kiel — winless run (away)1
Holstein Kiel — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Werder Bremen Win (1)28%
Draw (X)22%
Holstein Kiel Win (2)49%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

65% +0.5 94%
41% +1.5 41%
12% +2.5 12%
6% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

35% -0.5 6%
59% -1.5 59%
88% -2.5 88%
94% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Werder Bremen — scored (home)1.24
Werder Bremen — conceded (home)1.53
Holstein Kiel — scored (away)1.47
Holstein Kiel — conceded (away)2.29
Model expected combined goals3.25

Both Teams To Score

Yes63%
No37%

Rate per Team

Werder Bremen — BTTS matches (home)47%
Holstein Kiel — BTTS matches (away)88%
Combined (simple average)67.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%
Under 4.53%
Over 5.591%
Under 5.59%
Over 6.588%
Under 6.512%
Over 7.582%
Under 7.518%
Over 8.562%
Under 8.538%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.544%
Under 10.556%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Werder Bremen (home)

Corners for5.1
Corners against4.3

Holstein Kiel (away)

Corners for3.5
Corners against7.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Werder Bremen
9 4 10 15 10
Holstein Kiel
16 15 12 7 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.576%
Under 2.524%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Werder Bremen (home)

For2.3

Holstein Kiel (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

Werder Bremen — total shots (home)13.5
Holstein Kiel — total shots (away)10.7

Shots on Target

Werder Bremen — on target (home)3.9
Holstein Kiel — on target (away)4.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Werder Bremen

Inside the box9.47
Outside the box3.15

Holstein Kiel

Inside the box7.21
Outside the box3.76

Player Shots Werder Bremen

K. Topp
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target11%
+1.5 On Target5%
M. Ducksch
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
André Silva
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target43%
O. Burke
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target12%
J. Stage
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Holstein Kiel

A. Kelati
Shots on Target/Game3
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target13%
P. Harres
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target19%
S. Machino
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target16%
N. Remberg
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target6%
+1.5 On Target3%
A. Bernhardsson
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target16%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Werder Bremen xG (home)1.51
Holstein Kiel xG (away)1.18

Average Possession

49.94% Possession 43.65%

Team Comparison Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel

80.94% Pass accuracy 76.41%
469.15 Passes per match 370.29
-0 Goals prevented -0.15
9.85 Fouls committed 11.97
3.06 Goalkeeper saves 3.59
2.18 Offsides 1.38
16.03 Tackles per match 15.97

League average xG this season is 1.46 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel prediction analysis

Review Werder Bremen vs Holstein Kiel with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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