Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Wolves vs Leeds

Wolves vs Leeds prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premier League 2025-09-20 14:00
Wolves
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
54%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Leeds
Away

Prediction Summary

1
37%
X
25%
2
37%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Wolves (Home)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.79
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate53%

Leeds (Away)

Goals scored / match1.05
Goals conceded / match1.84
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate63%

Team Form last 5 matches

Wolves
DDLDL
Leeds
LWDWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

63% +0.5 63%
32% +1.5 32%
5% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
53% BTTS 63%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 54%. Model confidence is Medium.

Wolves averages 1 goals scored at home, while Leeds averages 1.05 goals scored away.

Model Strength
58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
37%
Draw
25%
Away Win
37%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
58%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Wolves(A) 0 - 3 Leeds Away
Sep 2025 Wolves 1 - 3 Leeds Away
Mar 2023 Wolves 2 - 4 Leeds Away
Nov 2022 Wolves 1 - 0 Leeds Home
Aug 2022 Wolves(A) 1 - 2 Leeds Away

In the last 5 meetings, Wolves won 1, drew 0 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

Wolves — unbeaten run (home)2
Wolves — scoring streak (home)2
Leeds — winless run (away)3
Leeds — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Wolves Win (1)37%
Draw (X)25%
Leeds Win (2)37%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

63% +0.5 63%
32% +1.5 32%
5% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

37% -0.5 37%
68% -1.5 68%
95% -2.5 89%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Wolves vs Leeds — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Wolves — scored (home)1
Wolves — conceded (home)1.79
Leeds — scored (away)1.05
Leeds — conceded (away)1.84
Model expected combined goals2.84

Both Teams To Score

Yes58%
No42%

Rate per Team

Wolves — BTTS matches (home)53%
Leeds — BTTS matches (away)63%
Combined (simple average)58%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.584%
Under 4.516%
Over 5.577%
Under 5.523%
Over 6.571%
Under 6.529%
Over 7.563%
Under 7.537%
Over 8.561%
Under 8.539%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.534%
Under 10.566%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Wolves (home)

Corners for3.1
Corners against5.3

Leeds (away)

Corners for3.3
Corners against5.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Wolves
10 9 8 9 14
Leeds
13 5 16 15 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Wolves (home)

For1.7

Leeds (away)

For1.8

Shots per Game

Wolves — total shots (home)10.2
Leeds — total shots (away)10.8

Shots on Target

Wolves — on target (home)3.6
Leeds — on target (away)3.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Wolves

Inside the box6.24
Outside the box3.47

Leeds

Inside the box8.58
Outside the box4

Player Shots Wolves

M. Mane
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target19%
T. Arokodare
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target12%
M. Munetsi
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%
A. Armstrong
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target7%
L. Krejčí
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target7%

Player Shots Leeds

D. Calvert-Lewin
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target20%
N. Okafor
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target7%
L. Nmecha
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target6%
A. Stach
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target0%
B. Aaronson
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target3%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Wolves xG (home)0.93
Leeds xG (away)1.43

Average Possession

42.79% Possession 45.74%

Team Comparison Wolves vs Leeds

78.61% Pass accuracy 78.32%
362.84 Passes per match 395.66
-0.1 Goals prevented 0.01
13 Fouls committed 10.47
2.92 Goalkeeper saves 2.66
1.5 Offsides 1.62
19.05 Tackles per match 17.39

League average xG this season is 1.4 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Wolves vs Leeds prediction analysis

Review Wolves vs Leeds with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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